Viewing archive of Monday, 17 September 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 260 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Sep 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9616 (S12E03) produced
an M1/2n impulsive flare at 17/0825 UTC accompanied by a Type II
radio sweep (764 km/s) and a 460 sfu Tenflare. LASCO/EIT observed a
partial halo CME associated with this event. Region 9608 (S30W75)
produced an M8/1n at 17/1550 UTC with an associated 380 sfu
Tenflare. New Region's 9622 (N12E34), 9623 (N21E46), and 9624
(N03E70) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high with Region's 9608 and 9616 still proving to have
potential to produce a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible
for the next three days as a result of the CME activity over the
past few days and a recurrent high speed stream in the solar wind.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 Sep 199 Predicted 18 Sep-20 Sep 195/195/200 90 Day Mean 17 Sep 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Sep 007/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Sep 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Sep-20 Sep 015/018-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Sep to 20 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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