Viewing archive of Sunday, 16 September 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 259 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Sep 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9608 (S29W64) produced
an M5/2n at 16/0353 UTC. New Regions 9620 (N12E70) and 9621
(N16E76) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate with Regions 9608, 9610 (S12W59), and 9616 (S12E16) are
capable of producing a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
10 MeV proton event on 15 September ended at 15/1545 UTC. The event
began at 15/1435 UTC and had a peak flux of 11 pfu at 15/1455 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Unsettled to active conditions
are possible on 18 and 19 September as a result of the CME that
occurred on 15 September and a recurrent high speed stream in the
solar wind.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Sep 207 Predicted 17 Sep-19 Sep 200/195/195 90 Day Mean 16 Sep 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Sep 010/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Sep 008/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Sep-19 Sep 012/012-020/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Sep to 19 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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