Viewing archive of Saturday, 15 September 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 15 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 258 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Sep 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. There were three low
level M-class events during the period. Region 9608 (S28W54)
produced an M1/1n at 15/1128 UTC. This event was accompanied by a
Type II radio sweep with an approximate speed of 700 km/s. Data
from SOHO/LASCO indicated a CME visible with this event. Region 9616
(S12W68) produced an M3 at 14/2150 UTC which was confirmed by the
LASCO/EIT images, and an M1/1f at 15/1559 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. An isolated major flare is possible from Region 9608,
9610 (S13W46), or 9616.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event began at 15/1435 UTC with a peak flux observed at
15/1455 UTC of 11 pfu. Protons remain enhanced at this time. The
most likely source of this activity was the CME from Region 9608 at
15/1128 UTC mentioned in Part IA above.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled. Unsettled to
active conditions are possible on 18 September as a result of
today's CME activity and a recurrent high speed stream in the solar
wind. The greater than 10 MeV protons should remain enhanced for
the first day of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 90% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 15 Sep 219 Predicted 16 Sep-18 Sep 215/215/210 90 Day Mean 15 Sep 165
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Sep 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Sep 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Sep-18 Sep 015/015-012/012-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Sep to 18 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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