Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 September 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 12 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 255 Issued at 2200Z on 12 Sep 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. A M1 class flare occurred
at 12/0444 UT. SOHO/EIT imagery suggests this flare originated from
Region 9608 (S26W18). Regions 9608 (S26W18) and 9610 (S13W05) have
become more compact and increased in sunspot number. Numerous
C-class flares also occurred. New data from SOHO/LASCO, together
with H-alpha imagery, revealed a disappearing filament and
associated halo CME which occurred on September 11 near spotless
Region 9615 (N11E23). This event was also accompanied with a modest
long duration optical and x-ray enhancements during 11/1416-1530 UT.
New Region 9617 (N10E71) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 9608 (S26W18), 9610 (S13E05), and 9616
(S11E69) are all potential sources of significant flares. Region
9608 is the most complex and capable of a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels. High speed
stream effects appear to be diminishing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to range from quiet to active with isolated minor storm
conditions possible through days one and two, in response to the
disappearing filament activity noted in section 1A above, along with
the remaining possibility of some effect from the CME activity of
September 9. By day three, predominantly quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected.
III. Event Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 12 Sep 235 Predicted 13 Sep-15 Sep 235/235/225 90 Day Mean 12 Sep 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 11 Sep 012/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 12 Sep 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 13 Sep-15 Sep 015/015-018/020-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 Sep to 15 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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