Viewing archive of Monday, 10 September 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Sep 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 253 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Sep 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar Activity was low. Five C-class flares occurred
during the period with the largest being a C8/1N at 10/0518 UT from
region 9608 (S27E07). This region continues to increase in area and
magnetic complexity. Region 9610 (S13E22) and 9611 (N10W64) have
increased in area. Region 9601 has rotated beyond the west limb
without significant activity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 9608 and nearby neighboring regions have
the potential to produce isolated major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be predominantly quiet, with the possibility of isolated
active conditions in response to coronal hole effects on day two and
three.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| Class M | 90% | 90% | 90% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Sep 245 Predicted 11 Sep-13 Sep 245/245/235 90 Day Mean 10 Sep 163
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Sep 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Sep 005/006 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Sep-13 Sep 008/010-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Sep to 13 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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