Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 August 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 30 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9591 (S20W33) produced an M1/2n flare at 30/1757 UTC. This region retains a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification and is showing imminent signs of producing a possible major flare. Former Region 9600 merged with Region 9601 to produce a beta-gamma-delta group located at (N14E69). This region produced a M3/Sf with an accompanying Type II radio sweep (1500 km/s) at 30/2038 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high. Regions 9591 and 9601 are both capable of producing major flares during the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. A small solar wind shock was recorded by the ACE spacecraft at approximately 1330 UTC. This corresponding shock arrival at earth produced a sudden impulse at the Boulder USGS magnetometer at 30/1413 UTC. This minor shock produced isolated active conditions at mid and high latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on the first day of the forecast period with active conditions expected on the second and third day due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
Class M80%80%80%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton25%25%25%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       30 Aug 199
  Predicted   31 Aug-02 Sep  205/210/210
  90 Day Mean        30 Aug 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 30 Aug  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep  010/010-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm05%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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