Viewing archive of Thursday, 30 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 242 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. Region 9591 (S20W33)
produced an M1/2n flare at 30/1757 UTC. This region retains a
complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification and is showing
imminent signs of producing a possible major flare. Former Region
9600 merged with Region 9601 to produce a beta-gamma-delta group
located at (N14E69). This region produced a M3/Sf with an
accompanying Type II radio sweep (1500 km/s) at 30/2038 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be high.
Regions 9591 and 9601 are both capable of producing major flares
during the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active conditions. A small
solar wind shock was recorded by the ACE spacecraft at approximately
1330 UTC. This corresponding shock arrival at earth produced a
sudden impulse at the Boulder USGS magnetometer at 30/1413 UTC. This
minor shock produced isolated active conditions at mid and high
latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached moderate levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on the first day of the forecast
period with active conditions expected on the second and third day
due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 Aug 199 Predicted 31 Aug-02 Sep 205/210/210 90 Day Mean 30 Aug 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Aug 005/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Aug 010/013 Predicted Afr/Ap 31 Aug-02 Sep 010/010-015/015-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 Aug to 02 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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