Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 August 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9600 (N17E58) produced two M1 x-ray events during the period. Region 9600 and 9601 (N12E58) are very close to each other in location and have produced sympathetic flaring between the two regions. Region 9591 (S19W20) still retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and a fairly large area of approximately 590 millionths. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. An isolated major flare is possible from Regions 9591, 9600, and 9601.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first two days of the forecast period. Active conditions can be expected on the third day due to recurrent coronal hole activity.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 Aug 197
  Predicted    30 Aug-01 Sep  200/200/205
  90 Day Mean        29 Aug 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug  006/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 29 Aug  010/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep  010/010-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%25%
Minor storm 05%05%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%30%
Minor storm 10%10%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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