Viewing archive of Wednesday, 29 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 29 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 241 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9600 (N17E58)
produced two M1 x-ray events during the period. Region 9600 and 9601
(N12E58) are very close to each other in location and have produced
sympathetic flaring between the two regions. Region 9591 (S19W20)
still retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and a fairly
large area of approximately 590 millionths. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. An isolated major flare is possible from Regions 9591,
9600, and 9601.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the first two days of the
forecast period. Active conditions can be expected on the third day
due to recurrent coronal hole activity.
III. Event Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 29 Aug 197 Predicted 30 Aug-01 Sep 200/200/205 90 Day Mean 29 Aug 155
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Aug 006/015 Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Aug 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Aug-01 Sep 010/010-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Aug to 01 Sep
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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