Viewing archive of Monday, 27 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 239 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. An M1 flare was
observed at 27/0638 UTC. The LASCO images indicate the event was
possibly from new Region 9601 (N10E85). Region 9591 (S18E07)
remains strong and continues its beta-gamma-delta configuration.
Four new regions were numbered today as regions 9598 (S18W75), 9599
(S18E65), 9600 (N17E82), and 9601.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9591 is capable of producing M-class events with
an isolated major flare possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active. A shock passed the
ACE spacecraft at 27/1920 UTC and created a sudden impulse of 37 nt
at the Earth at 27/1952 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to active to minor storm conditions on 28 August as a
result of the X5 event on 25 August. Unsettled to active conditions
are expected on 29 August with quiet to unsettled conditions
returning on 30 August.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 Aug 192 Predicted 28 Aug-30 Aug 195/200/200 90 Day Mean 27 Aug 154
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Aug 009/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Aug 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Aug-30 Aug 030/030-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Aug to 30 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 05% | 01% |
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