Viewing archive of Tuesday, 21 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Region 9585 (N15E11)
produced isolated subflares, none of which were associated with
significant X-ray emission. New Region 9591 (S18E71) rotated into
view. It was the likely source for a bright surge near SE19 at
21/1050 UTC. A filament erupted from the southwest quadrant around
mid-period. The eruption was associated with a long-duration C2
X-ray event that peaked at 21/1303 UTC and a coronal mass ejection
that did not appear to be Earth directed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. There will be a fair chance for an isolated
M-class flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Activity increased to unsettled to active levels after 21/0900 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced and
gradually decreased toward background in the wake of the proton
event of 16 - 18 August.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 Aug 160 Predicted 22 Aug-24 Aug 165/170/175 90 Day Mean 21 Aug 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Aug 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Aug 014/016 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Aug-24 Aug 012/010-010/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Aug to 24 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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