Viewing archive of Sunday, 19 August 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Aug 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only a few small subflares occurred, none of which with significant x-ray output. Region 9585 (N15E37) continued to grow but at a slower pace. New Region 9588 (S32W55) emerged on the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV solar energetic proton event ended (start 16/0135 UTC, 493 pfu peak at 16/0355 UTC, and end 18/1845 UTC).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
Class M 10%10%10%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 Aug 158
  Predicted    20 Aug-22 Aug  160/165/170
  90 Day Mean        19 Aug 152
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 Aug  013/014
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 Aug  012/012
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug  010/012-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Aug to 22 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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