Viewing archive of Wednesday, 1 August 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Aug 01 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Aug 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9561
(S12E37) produced isolated B- and C-class subflares. This
moderate-sized, simply-structured sunspot group remained the most
active of the visible regions, but showed no significant changes
during the period. No significant changes were observed in the
remaining regions. New Regions 9564 (N14W40), 9565 (N04E22), and
9566 N17E63) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to (briefly) active levels in
response to coronal hole effects, which gradually decreased during
the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on the first day.
Activity is expected to increase to mostly active levels during the
final two days of the period following yesterday's filament
disappearances.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 01 Aug 120 Predicted 02 Aug-04 Aug 120/125/130 90 Day Mean 01 Aug 149
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Jul 020/023 Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Aug 014/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Aug-04 Aug 008/015-015/015-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Aug to 04 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 45% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 02% | 11% | 11% |
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