Viewing archive of Tuesday, 31 July 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 212 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Jul 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Isolated B- and C-class
subflares occurred. Region 9561 (S12E49) was the most active of the
visible regions, but showed no significant changes during the
period. A couple large filaments erupted from the south-central
portion of the disk early in the period. New Region 9563 (N24E57)
was numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
at low levels.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at unsettled to active levels due to
coronal hole effects.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels on the first day decreasing
to quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Jul 117 Predicted 01 Aug-03 Aug 120/120/125 90 Day Mean 31 Jul 150
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Jul 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Jul 018/023 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Aug-03 Aug 012/015-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Aug to 03 Aug
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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