Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 July 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 205 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jul 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Region 9543 (S23W44)
produced isolated B- and C-class subflares as it continued to
gradually increase in area. It remained moderate-sized with a minor
degree of magnetic complexity. The remaining regions were mostly
small, stable, and simply structured. New Regions 9554 (N16W61) and
9555 (S08E54) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There will be a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from
Region 9543.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. Active
levels occurred during 24/1200 - 1500 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to active levels during 25 - 26 July.
Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels on 27
July.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jul 133 Predicted 25 Jul-27 Jul 135/135/130 90 Day Mean 24 Jul 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jul 008/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jul 015/015 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jul-27 Jul 012/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jul to 27 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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