Viewing archive of Monday, 23 July 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Region 9545 (N08W72) produced today's largest event, a C5/Sf at 0623 UTC. This region continues to grow and exhibits bright plage as it approaches the west limb. The group produced additional C-class events throughout the day. Region 9543 (S25W31) continues to be the largest group on the disk. The group shows the addition of several newly emerged small spots, while the older large spots seem to be in decay. An impressive CME was seen in the LASCO/C2 field of view just off the northwest limb today at 1131 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low, but there continues to be a slight chance for an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was a brief active period from 0300-0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days, with a fair chance for some active periods. The increase is anticipated from possible coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jul 143
  Predicted   24 Jul-26 Jul  140/140/135
  90 Day Mean        23 Jul 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul  006/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jul  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul  012/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%35%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm20%20%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%10%

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