Viewing archive of Monday, 23 July 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 9545 (N08W72)
produced today's largest event, a C5/Sf at 0623 UTC. This region
continues to grow and exhibits bright plage as it approaches the
west limb. The group produced additional C-class events throughout
the day. Region 9543 (S25W31) continues to be the largest group on
the disk. The group shows the addition of several newly emerged
small spots, while the older large spots seem to be in decay. An
impressive CME was seen in the LASCO/C2 field of view just off the
northwest limb today at 1131 UTC.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there continues to be a slight chance for an
isolated M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled. There was a
brief active period from 0300-0600 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled during the next three days, with a
fair chance for some active periods. The increase is anticipated
from possible coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 143 Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 23 Jul 156
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 006/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 012/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 012/015-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul to 26 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
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