Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 July 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was very low. X-ray emission remained
below C-level during the past 24 hours. Region 9543 (S22W19) remains
the largest group on the disk and showed slight growth in some of
the middle spots. Region 9545 (N09W57) showed some growth but was
very stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
for the next three days. There is, however, a very slight chance for
an isolated M-class event from Region 9543.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24
hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes declined from high
levels at 21/2325 UTC and remained below this threshold for the
remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. A slight
increase to unsettled with a possibility for isolated active periods
is predicted for the second and third days due to coronal hole
effects.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Jul 140 Predicted 23 Jul-25 Jul 140/135/135 90 Day Mean 22 Jul 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul 003/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Jul 007/009 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul 007/010-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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