Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 July 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jul 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 203 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Jul 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. X-ray emission remained below C-level during the past 24 hours. Region 9543 (S22W19) remains the largest group on the disk and showed slight growth in some of the middle spots. Region 9545 (N09W57) showed some growth but was very stable and quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days. There is, however, a very slight chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 9543.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes declined from high levels at 21/2325 UTC and remained below this threshold for the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours. A slight increase to unsettled with a possibility for isolated active periods is predicted for the second and third days due to coronal hole effects.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
Class M25%25%25%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Jul 140
  Predicted   23 Jul-25 Jul  140/135/135
  90 Day Mean        22 Jul 157
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Jul  003/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Jul  007/009
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Jul-25 Jul  007/010-012/015-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jul to 25 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm10%20%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%25%25%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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