Viewing archive of Sunday, 24 June 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Jun 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been at low levels. The largest
event being an optically uncorrelated C6 at 24/0455 UTC. Region 9511
(N10E00), after producing an X-class flare and three M-class events
on 22-23 June, has shown a dramatic decrease in activity and has
deteriorated to a simple beta magnetic classification. Only two
minor C-class events were produced by Region 9511 today. Region 9503
(N15W75) still retains a beta-gamma classification, but has only
produced a minor C-class event during the period. Regions 9512
(S22W09) and 9513 (N23E44) have increased in area and spot count but
have not produced any significance activity yet. No new regions were
numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated M-class events are possible.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for the first two
days of the period. Isolated active conditions, especially at higher
latitudes, may occur on the third day due to a favorably positioned
coronal hole and the resulting high speed stream impacting earth.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Jun 195 Predicted 25 Jun-27 Jun 195/190/185 90 Day Mean 24 Jun 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Jun 005/008 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Jun 008/011 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Jun-27 Jun 008/010-008/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Jun to 27 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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