Viewing archive of Saturday, 23 June 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was high. Region 9511 (N10E13) became extremely active during the period, producing several C-class events, three M-class events, and an impulsive X1/1b flare at 23/0408 UTC. Although still a relatively small region, 9511 has quickly developed into a 22-spot Dao group with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic classification. Region 9503 (N16W61) was also active during the period, producing several optical subflares and an M6/1n event at 22/2222 UTC. Three new regions were numbered: 9514 (N12E54), 9515 (S06E46), and 9516 (N12E70).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Several regions have the potential to produce minor M-class events and Region 9411 could continue to produce isolated M and X-class events. EIT imagery shows a potentially active region beginning to rotate onto the disk in the northeast quadrant.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may again reach high levels during the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 Jun 206
  Predicted   24 Jun-26 Jun  205/200/200
  90 Day Mean        23 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun  003/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 Jun  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun to 26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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