Viewing archive of Thursday, 21 June 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 172 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Jun 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

Solar activity remained at low levels. Region 9503 (N16W33) produced isolated C-class subflares. Flux emergence occurred within the interior spots of this region and a magnetic delta configuration may have developed in the trailer portion of the group as well. Region 9504 (N08W28) produced isolated C-class subflares during the period. Regions 9503 and 9504 appeared to be linked magnetically. Both regions share a common neutral line and have exhibited some sympathetic flare activity. Region 9506 (N19W04) maintained a mild mixing of polarities and was stable through the period. New Regions 9512 (S23E31) and 9513 (N21E76) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 9503 could produce an M-class flare during the period. There is also a slight chance for a major flare from this region.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels through the period. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may reach high levels during 22 June. Normal to moderate fluxes are expected during the rest of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 Jun 200
  Predicted   22 Jun-24 Jun  205/205/200
  90 Day Mean        21 Jun 174
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 20 Jun  010/015
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 21 Jun  010/013
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  010/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Jun to 24 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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