Viewing archive of Monday, 18 June 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Jun 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9506 (N17E34) produced an M2/2n parallel-ribbon flare at 28/2021 UTC associated with minor centimetric radio bursts. It also produced a long-duration C1/Sf flare at 18/0230 UTC. Region 9506 showed signs of penumbral decay in its leader spot and maintained a mixed polarity structure. Region 9503 (N14E07) produced isolated subflares including a C4/Sf at 18/1455 UTC. This region also possessed a mixed polarity structure and showed no significant changes during the period. Region 9502 (S26W08), which produced isolated major flares on 13 and 15 June, gradually decayed and possessed a simple bipolar structure. Today's noon 10.7 cm flux reading of 221 SFU was flare enhanced. The morning reading of 199 SFU was more reflective of prevailing conditions.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9503 and 9506 could produce isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm levels with brief major storm periods detected at high latitudes. This disturbance was due to a CME passage at Earth that began around 18/0100 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels on the first day decreasing to quiet to unsettled levels for the rest of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 Jun 221
  Predicted   19 Jun-21 Jun  200/195/195
  90 Day Mean        18 Jun 173
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 17 Jun  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  027/029
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  012/015-008/012-007/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Jun to 21 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%15%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%20%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%

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