Viewing archive of Sunday, 17 June 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Jun 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

Solar activity has been low. Today's largest event was a C3 at 2242 UTC which was not seen optically. Region 9503 (N14E20) is currently the largest group on the disk, and shows continued growth, enhanced plage and occasional brightenings. Region 9501 (S13W11) has also shown growth during the past 24 hours. Region 9502 (S25E05) continues to have an east-west inversion line, but appeared to be a bit cooler today than previously. Region 9506 (N17E48) has rotated into view as a beta-gamma group, but was relatively calm and stable. Two filaments disappeared during the past 24 hours: a 14 degree filament near S27W11, and a 28 degree filament near N30E55.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three days. There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated major flare event, particularly from 9503 and 9506.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Quiet conditions prevailed during the first 15 hours of the period, but activity increased to unsettled to slightly active between 1200-2100 UTC. Solar wind signatures showed some kind of transient type flow from 0300-1600 UTC which was accompanied be moderately negative interplanetary Bz.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field for the next 24 hours is expected to be mostly unsettled, but with a chance for isolated active periods. Unsettled levels should prevail on the second day, and activity should drop to quiet to unsettled levels by the third day.
III. Event Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 Jun 205
  Predicted   18 Jun-20 Jun  200/200/195
  90 Day Mean        17 Jun 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 16 Jun  004/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 17 Jun  010/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 18 Jun-20 Jun  015/015-010/010-005/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Jun to 20 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%30%25%
Minor storm25%20%15%
Major-severe storm15%10%05%

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