Viewing archive of Saturday, 16 June 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Jun 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 9506 (N17E61)
produced today's largest event, a C9/1f at 15/2226 UTC. This region
has rotated more fully into view as a relatively large, bright
sunspot group with mixed magnetic polarities. Substantial growth was
observed in Region 9503 (N13E33) but no flares were reported during
the last 24 hours. Region 9502 (S25E19) showed slow growth and was
observed to produce a C5/Sf flare at 2010 UTC. Region 9495 (N06W73)
displayed growth and enhanced plage today and produced occasional
subflares.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, with the main flare-producing regions being 9502 and 9506,
although regions 9495 and 9503 may also contribute to the activity.
There is a slight chance for a major flare event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began yesterday at 1750 UTC attained a maximum of
26 PFU at 16/0005 UTC and ended today at 1210 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active tomorrow in possible response to recent CME
activity observed on the 13th and the 14th. Predominantly unsettled
levels are expected for the second and third days of the forecast.
III. Event Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 Jun 208 Predicted 17 Jun-19 Jun 205/205/210 90 Day Mean 16 Jun 172
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Jun 006/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Jun 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Jun-19 Jun 020/020-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jun to 19 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
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