Viewing archive of Thursday, 14 June 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 14 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 165 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Jun 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Region 9489 (N20W69) produced today's largest event, a C6/Sf at 0943
UTC. This event was time-associated with a partial halo coronal mass
ejection. There are currently 17 numbered sunspot regions on the
disk, and there was an overall growth trend during the day. Growth
was particularly noteworthy in regions 9489 (N20W69), 9495
(N06W46), and 9502 (S26E45). Newly assigned regions 9505 (N22E73 -
Carrington 126) and 9506 (N17E79 - Carrington 120) rotated into view
today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate during the next three days. Regions 9489 and 9502 are
considered to be the most likely sources for energetic events. There
is a slight chance for a major flare or proton producing event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days. An increase
to unsettled to slightly active is possible on the third day in
response to a possible glancing blow from today's CME event.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| Class M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 14 Jun 195 Predicted 15 Jun-17 Jun 195/195/200 90 Day Mean 14 Jun 170
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Jun 010/014 Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Jun 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Jun-17 Jun 005/010-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Jun to 17 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 25% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 15% |
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