Viewing archive of Sunday, 10 June 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Jun 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Jun 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z Solar activity was low. Frequent C-class flares were
observed. Region 9494 (S08W57) produced most of the activity
including the largest event of the period - a C9/Sf at 10/0104Z.
This region developed more size and complexity during the last 24
hours, with a weak delta configuration becoming obvious by
mid-period. Slow growth was also observed in Region 9489 (N18W17)
which produced isolated C-class flares in a beta-gamma
configuration. Minor C-class flares were also observed in Region
9487 (N21W30) and Region 9493 (N06E25). New regions 9497 (S10E27)
and 9498 (N22E58) were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9494 has a good chance of producing an M-class
flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. These
disturbed conditions are a result of a high speed stream that is now
tapering off.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active periods are
likely at high latitudes.
III. Event Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 Jun 163 Predicted 11 Jun-13 Jun 170/170/170 90 Day Mean 10 Jun 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Jun 019/020 Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Jun 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Jun-13 Jun 012/012-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Jun to 13 Jun
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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