Viewing archive of Monday, 28 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 148 Issued at 2200Z on 28 May 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-class flares
occurred. Although no optical flare reports were received, at least
one of the C-class flares (C1 at 28/1556 UTC) was observed by HESSI
to be associated with departed Region 9461 (N22, L=162). All of the
regions currently on the disk are relatively inactive. New regions
numbered include 9479 (N26W56), 9480 (S14E52), and 9481 (N17W44).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. Sustained
southward Bz contributed to active conditions from 28/0900 to 2100
UTC. This activity appears to be associated with the passage of the
structure (CME) following yesterday's shock.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled by the second day of the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 May 143 Predicted 29 May-31 May 140/140/135 90 Day Mean 28 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 May 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 28 May 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 010/015-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 May to 31 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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