Viewing archive of Thursday, 24 May 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 24 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9468 (N05E25) produced an M1/1n flare at 24/1944Z. Minor centimetric bursts, a Type II radio sweep (620 km/s), and a CME also accompanied this flare. Region 9468 is a moderately complex group covering 150 millionths of white light area and produced frequent brightness fluctuations throughout the period. A pair of long duration C1 events were observed at 24/0706Z and 24/0901Z, and were likely associated with an impressive CME originating just behind the NE limb. A weak Type II sweep was observed at 24/1712Z, associated with a filament eruption and faint CME near the west limb. The largest region on the visible disk - Region 9463 remains stable in a simple beta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. An isolated M-class event is possible from Regions 9463 and 9468.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnmetic field was quiet to unsettled. We have been under the influence of a high speed coronal hole stream for almost 40 hours, but the geomagnetic response so far has been weak.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods through days one and two. Active to minor storm conditions are possible on day three in response to the CME at 24/1955Z.
III. Event Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 May 170
  Predicted    25 May-27 May  165/170/170
  90 Day Mean        24 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 May  008/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 May  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 25 May-27 May  008/008-008/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 May to 27 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%35%
Minor storm 05%05%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%40%
Minor storm 10%10%20%
Major-severe storm 01%01%10%

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