Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 May 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Isolated low C-class flares were observed. Region 9463 (N07E04) has doubled in size since yesterday exceeding 750 millionths of white light areal coverage by end of period. Despite its size, this region exhibits a fairly simple beta configuration with no obvious complexity. Region 9468 (N05E39) also doubled in size exceeding 200 millionths with moderate complexity. Two new regions were numbered today - 9471 (S13W02), and 9472 (N12E61).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low. A very isolated chance exists for an M-class flare from Regions 9463 or 9468.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The onset of a high speed coronal hole stream occurred at approximately 23/0200Z. Solar wind speed has gradually increased from 300 km/s to 450 km/s; consequently, unsettled to active conditions were predominant during the latter half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active through day one due to high speed coronal hole flow. Quiet to unsettled conditions should return on days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 May 159
  Predicted   24 May-26 May  165/170/170
  90 Day Mean        23 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 22 May  008/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 23 May  015/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May  015/018-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%30%
Minor storm25%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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