Viewing archive of Wednesday, 23 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Isolated low C-class flares
were observed. Region 9463 (N07E04) has doubled in size since
yesterday exceeding 750 millionths of white light areal coverage by
end of period. Despite its size, this region exhibits a fairly
simple beta configuration with no obvious complexity. Region 9468
(N05E39) also doubled in size exceeding 200 millionths with moderate
complexity. Two new regions were numbered today - 9471 (S13W02), and
9472 (N12E61).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
A very isolated chance exists for an M-class flare from Regions 9463
or 9468.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The onset of a high speed
coronal hole stream occurred at approximately 23/0200Z. Solar wind
speed has gradually increased from 300 km/s to 450 km/s;
consequently, unsettled to active conditions were predominant during
the latter half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active through day one due to high speed
coronal hole flow. Quiet to unsettled conditions should return on
days two and three.
III. Event Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| Class M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 159 Predicted 24 May-26 May 165/170/170 90 Day Mean 23 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 008/009 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 015/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 015/018-010/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May to 26 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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