Viewing archive of Monday, 21 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 141 Issued at 2200Z on 21 May 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period
was a C9 flare from Region 9461 (N22W06). A CME was observed from
this flare with most material expelled northward. Region 9463
(N12E31) continues its growth phase and is now an "E" type group in
excess of 500 millionths of white light areal coverage. Three new
regions were numbered today - 9466 (S02E40), 9467 (S05E55), and 9468
(N07E65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Regions 9461 and 9463 have potential
for isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous has been enhanced since the M6 flare
at 20/0603UT, but is slowly returning to background levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels through day one.
Active periods are possible on day two and three due to a high speed
coronal hole effects and a possible glancing blow from a CME
observed early on 20 May.
III. Event Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| Class M | 25% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 May 150 Predicted 22 May-24 May 155/160/165 90 Day Mean 21 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 May 006/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 21 May 005/008 Predicted Afr/Ap 22 May-24 May 010/012-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 May to 24 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 25% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 15% | 05% |
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