Viewing archive of Saturday, 19 May 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 139 Issued at 2200Z on 19 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Only occasional C-class flares occurred during the period. The largest event was an optically uncorrelated C6 flare at 19/1438 UTC. This was accompanied by a Type II radio sweep (470 km/s). Although imagery was non-conclusive, it appears that this event originated in Region 9455 (S17W90+) which was at or near the west limb at the time. A non-earth directed coronal mass ejection from this event was detected by the LASCO/SOHO spacecraft. Two new regions were numbered, 9463 (N07E70) and 9464 (S11E70).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance of isolated M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux can be expected to reach moderate levels during the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 May 141
  Predicted   20 May-22 May  135/130/130
  90 Day Mean        19 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 18 May  011/011
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 19 May  012/012
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 20 May-22 May  008/012-008/012-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 May to 22 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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