Viewing archive of Tuesday, 15 May 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 135 Issued at 2200Z on 15 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9455 (S17W38) produced an M1/1n flare at 15/0300 UTC associated with Type II and IV radio sweeps and a CME, which did not appear to be Earth-directed. Region 9455 showed no significant changes and maintained a minor degree of magnetic complexity. Minor spot development occurred within Region 9454 (N12E05), which also possessed minor magnetic complexity. New Region 9461 (N15E76) rotated into view. It appeared to be the return of old Region 9433, which produced major flares during its previous two rotations. An impressive eruptive prominence and associated CME occurred from beyond the northeast limb (to the east of new Region 9461) late in the period. A long duration C-class X-ray enhancement was associated with the prominence eruption.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Regions 9455 and 9454 appear capable of isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the second half of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to active levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels during the first half of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 May 142
  Predicted   16 May-18 May  150/160/170
  90 Day Mean        15 May 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 14 May  010/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 15 May  014/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 16 May-18 May  012/015-012/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 May to 18 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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