Viewing archive of Saturday, 12 May 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 132 Issued at 2200Z on 12 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Several C-class events were observed. The largest of these was a C5/Sf flare at 1210 UTC from Region 9454 (N13E46). Region 9454 is currently the largest sunspot group on the disk and has some magnetic complexity. Region 9455 (S16E03) grew steadily during the past 24 hours and produced the majority of today's C-class events. Newly assigned Region 9456 (N06W04) emerged on the disk during the past 24 hours.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event during the next three days from any of regions 9454, 9455, or 9456. Of these, Region 9455 appears to be the best candidate for continued flare activity.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels during the past 24 hours. Unsettled to active levels predominated most of the day, but the period from 0900-1500Z saw minor storm levels at mid-latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours. Predominantly unsettled levels should prevail during the second and third days.
III. Event Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
Class M35%35%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 May 138
  Predicted   13 May-15 May  140/142/144
  90 Day Mean        12 May 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 11 May  005/009
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 12 May  025/035
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 13 May-15 May  015/015-012/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 May to 15 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm10%05%05%

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