Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 May 2001

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 128 Issued at 2200Z on 08 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

Solar activity was low. Region 9445 (N24W54), still the most active spot group visible, produced a C9/1f flare at 0055 UTC, the day's largest event. The region retains a modest degree of magnetic complexity. The remainder of the disk and limbs were quiet.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9445 retains the potential to produce a small M-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 07/1915 UTC, reached a maximum of 30 pfu at 08/0755 UTC. Those fluxes are now slowly declining to more normal levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton10%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 May 129
  Predicted   09 May-11 May  125/120/115
  90 Day Mean        08 May 168
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 07 May  011/017
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 08 May  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 09 May-11 May  010/008-005/007-005/007
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 May to 11 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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