Viewing archive of Monday, 7 May 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 127 Issued at 2200Z on 07 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity was low. X-ray flare activity consisted of mid-sized C-class events from Region 9445 (S25W42). The region possesses bright plage and a modest degree of magnetic complexity. The most spectacular events of the day came from behind the west limb. The LASCO coronagraph saw a dramatic cme moving westward at about 07/1000 UTC. Somewhat later, another cme was launched in the same approximate trajectory. This second event may have been related to flare activity in Region 9445 (C3/Sf at 1220 UTC). Elsewhere, one new region was numbered, 9452 (S09E67).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9445 may generate an isolated M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to minor storm levels. A prolonged period of southward IMF, from approximately 06/2200-07/0800 UTC, spawned active to minor storm conditions at mid and high latitudes. More normal conditions have occurred lately, with quiet to unsettled conditions prevailing. A greater than 10 MeV proton event began at 07/1915 UTC, and is still in progress. This activity is thought to be a result of the behind the limb CME seen to occur near 07/1000 UTC. The maximum greater than 10 MeV flux of this soft event is 15 pfu at 07/2100 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. This current disturbance should weaken through the interval. The greater than 10 MeV protons should slowly subside.
III. Event Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton30%05%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 May 138
  Predicted   08 May-10 May  135/130/125
  90 Day Mean        07 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 May  005/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 May  015/016
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 08 May-10 May  010/014-010/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 May to 10 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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