Viewing archive of Friday, 4 May 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 04 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest event was a long-duration C4/Sf from Region 9447 (N14W41). Region 9447 grew in area and spot count today, as well as developing into a more complex Beta-Gamma magnetic classification. The only other active region of note was 9445 (N25W04) which produced some optical subflares. One region was numbered today: 9450 (S03W07).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Isolated active periods are possible on the first day of the forecast period due to favorably positioned coronal holes.
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       04 May 176
  Predicted   05 May-07 May  170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        04 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 03 May  006/007
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 04 May  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May  012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm15%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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