Viewing archive of Friday, 4 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 124 Issued at 2200Z on 04 May 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest event was a
long-duration C4/Sf from Region 9447 (N14W41). Region 9447 grew in
area and spot count today, as well as developing into a more complex
Beta-Gamma magnetic classification. The only other active region of
note was 9445 (N25W04) which produced some optical subflares. One
region was numbered today: 9450 (S03W07).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue
to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled conditions. Isolated
active periods are possible on the first day of the forecast period
due to favorably positioned coronal holes.
III. Event Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 May 176 Predicted 05 May-07 May 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 04 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 May 006/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 04 May 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 05 May-07 May 012/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 May to 07 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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