Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 May 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z Solar activity was low. The largest events were a C2/Sf
event at 03/0405 UTC from Region 9445 (N25E10) and a C2/Sf at
03/1602 UTC from Region 9447 (N12W27). These two regions produced
most of the solar activity during the period. Region 9447 grew in
size and spot count today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be continue to be quiet to unsettled with the
possibility of isolated active conditions due to favorably
positioned coronal holes.
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| Class M | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 May 172 Predicted 04 May-06 May 170/165/160 90 Day Mean 03 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 May 004/006 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 May 008/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 015/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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