Viewing archive of Thursday, 3 May 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 03 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 123 Issued at 2200Z on 03 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The largest events were a C2/Sf event at 03/0405 UTC from Region 9445 (N25E10) and a C2/Sf at 03/1602 UTC from Region 9447 (N12W27). These two regions produced most of the solar activity during the period. Region 9447 grew in size and spot count today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be continue to be quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated active conditions due to favorably positioned coronal holes.
III. Event Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
Class M 30%25%30%
Class X 01%01%01%
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       03 May 172
  Predicted    04 May-06 May  170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        03 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 02 May  004/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 03 May  008/010
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May  015/015-012/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 May to 06 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Minor storm 05%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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