Viewing archive of Tuesday, 1 May 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 May 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 121 Issued at 2200Z on 01 May 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class x-ray event from Region 9433 (N19W80). This was an M2/Sf flare that occurred at 01/1917 UTC. Regions 9441 (N06W16) and 9445 (N26E37) produced C-class x-ray and optical sub-flares during the period. Region 9445 grew in area and spot count today. The Penticton 10.7 cm Flux of 210 sfu was enhanced by the M2 flare. The value is more likely closer to the Penticton morning observation of 185 sfu.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to continue to be moderate. Region 9433 is capable of producing an M-class event before rotating completely over the western limb. Region 9441 and 9445 are also showing potential for isolated M-class events.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled, with an increasing chance of active conditions on the third day of the period, due to favorably positioned coronal holes.
III. Event Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
Class M70%70%50%
Class X15%15%05%
Proton15%15%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 May 210
  Predicted   02 May-04 May  185/180/175
  90 Day Mean        01 May 169
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 30 Apr  001/005
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 May  005/005
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 May-04 May  010/012-010/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 May to 04 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%15%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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