Viewing archive of Wednesday, 25 April 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 115 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Apr 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9433 (N16W15) produced two M-class flares during the period. The largest was an M2/2n at 25/1348 UTC. This event had an associated Type II radio sweep and a 200 sfu 10 cm radio burst. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was also observed during this event, however images from the LASCO/EIT space craft show it to be non earth-directed. Region 9433 continued to grow in area and spot count during the period and retains an F-type spot group with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Regions 9438 (S13E22) and 9439 (S22W28) were numbered during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. The ongoing development of Region 9433 suggests a major flare is possible sometime during the forecast period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet to unsettled conditions barring an earth-directed CME. There is an increasing chance for a proton event as Region 9433 continues to evolve and rotate into the western solar hemisphere.
III. Event Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
Class M80%80%80%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 Apr 194
  Predicted   26 Apr-28 Apr  200/210/215
  90 Day Mean        25 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 24 Apr  011/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 25 Apr  010/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 26 Apr-28 Apr  010/020-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Apr to 28 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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