Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 April 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 24 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9433 (N17E02)
has produced several M-class flares during the period. The largest
was an M3/1n at 24/0700 UTC. This region has grown significantly
and has a white light area around 1000 millionths. The region
continues to retain an F-type spot group with a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. The ongoing development of Region 9433 suggest a
major flare is possible sometime through the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. There is an increasing chance
for a proton event as Region 9433 evolves.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 24 Apr 194 Predicted 25 Apr-27 Apr 200/210/210 90 Day Mean 24 Apr 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr 018/021 Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Apr 010/010 Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr 010/010-010/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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