Viewing archive of Tuesday, 24 April 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 114 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Apr 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9433 (N17E02) has produced several M-class flares during the period. The largest was an M3/1n at 24/0700 UTC. This region has grown significantly and has a white light area around 1000 millionths. The region continues to retain an F-type spot group with a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. The ongoing development of Region 9433 suggest a major flare is possible sometime through the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. There is an increasing chance for a proton event as Region 9433 evolves.
III. Event Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
Class M80%80%80%
Class X25%25%25%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 Apr 194
  Predicted   25 Apr-27 Apr  200/210/210
  90 Day Mean        24 Apr 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 23 Apr  018/021
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 24 Apr  010/010
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 25 Apr-27 Apr  010/010-010/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Apr to 27 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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