Viewing archive of Monday, 23 April 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9433 (N17E14)
produced two M-class events during the period, an M1/1f flare at
23/0128 UTC and an M4/2n at 23/2030 UTC. Region 9431 (S11W29)
produced an C2/Sf at 23/1223 UTC with an associated 6 degree long
disappearing filament. Region 9433 continues to grow in spot count
and area. This region has retained its F-type sunspot group with
mixed polarities and a delta configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 9433 is likely to continue to produce M-class
events with the chance for an isolated major flare during the next
three days.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm conditions for
the last 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. There remains a chance for an
energetic proton event if a major flare occurs in Region 9433.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 196 Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 205/210/210 90 Day Mean 23 Apr 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 017/028 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 020/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 010/010-010/010-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr to 26 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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