Viewing archive of Sunday, 22 April 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 22 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 112 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Apr 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z Solar activity was moderate due to an M3/1N flare at
22/2044 UTC in Region 9433 (N17E26). The flare was associated with a
tenflare of 270 sfu and a weak type II sweep. This Region remains a
large F-type sunspot group with mixed spot polarities. Spot growth
has resulted in the formation of at least two small delta
configurations in the central and leading sunspots.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-class flares are likely in Region 9433. The
possibility of a major flare is increasing as sunspot growth and
magnetic complexity develops.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. This
activity is most likely related to the passage of one of the CMEs
observed over the northwest limb earlier this week.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels becoming unsettled to
active within the next 24 hours. There is a chance of an energetic
proton event if a major flare occurs in Region 9433.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Apr 193 Predicted 23 Apr-25 Apr 205/210/210 90 Day Mean 22 Apr 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Apr 007/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Apr 030/030 Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Apr-25 Apr 015/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Apr to 25 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 01% |
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