Viewing archive of Saturday, 14 April 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 104 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Apr 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9415 (S22W72) produced an M1/SF event during 14/1715-1828 UTC. Peak x-ray flux occurred at 14/1811 UTC, after an extended and variable rise in flux levels. Also observed were an associated Type-II sweep, 150 sfu tenflare, eruptive prominence and bright surging on the limb. Imagery from SOHO/LASCO indicated a subsequent CME, however not appearing earth-directed. Region 9418 (N26W59) also produced a subfaint flare during the event, and now exhibits some increase in areal coverage and magnetic complexity. Two new regions were numbered today: 9428 (N14W39) and 9429 (N09E62).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Regions 9415 and 9418 remain potential sources of isolated major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels, primarily due to lingering effects of the geomagnetic storm that commenced on 13 April. Greater-than-2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels at 1415 UTC, and remained above threshold through the end of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase, with major storm levels possible during the next 24 hours, due to an expected shock arrival from CME activity observed on 12 April. Storm activity is expected to wane during the following two days, with quiet to unsettled levels expected by the end of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
Class M70%60%50%
Class X20%10%10%
Proton20%10%10%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 Apr 139
  Predicted   15 Apr-17 Apr  140/145/150
  90 Day Mean        14 Apr 166
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 13 Apr  031/036
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 14 Apr  020/020
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 15 Apr-17 Apr  030/040-020/030-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Apr to 17 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%25%20%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm25%20%10%
Major-severe storm20%10%05%

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