Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 April 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z Solar activity decreased to low levels. A single
C-class X-ray flare occurred. Region 9415 (S21E21) remained the
dominant region on the disk with a minor increase in area and spots.
It remained magnetically complex with a strong delta configuration
within its leader spots. Minor growth was reported in Region 9417
(S08E01), but the region remained a simply-structured bipole. New
Regions 9421 (S15W42) and 9422 (S13E78) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 9415 may produce a major flare
during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to minor storm
levels. A shock passed the ACE spacecraft at about 07/1700 UTC,
presumably from the long-duration M5 X-ray flare and halo-CME event
observed on 05 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux gradually
declined, but remained enhanced.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels during the first
two days due to an expected CME passage associated with the X5 flare
of 06 April. The CME is expected to reach Earth around midday
tomorrow. Quiet to active levels are expected on the final day.
There will be a chance for a proton flare from Region 9415 during
the period.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Proton | 60% | 25% | 25% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 Apr 180 Predicted 08 Apr-10 Apr 175/175/170 90 Day Mean 07 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr 011/012 Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Apr 025/025 Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 025/030-025/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 35% | 35% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
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