Viewing archive of Saturday, 7 April 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 097 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Apr 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

Solar activity decreased to low levels. A single C-class X-ray flare occurred. Region 9415 (S21E21) remained the dominant region on the disk with a minor increase in area and spots. It remained magnetically complex with a strong delta configuration within its leader spots. Minor growth was reported in Region 9417 (S08E01), but the region remained a simply-structured bipole. New Regions 9421 (S15W42) and 9422 (S13E78) were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 9415 may produce a major flare during the period.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to minor storm levels. A shock passed the ACE spacecraft at about 07/1700 UTC, presumably from the long-duration M5 X-ray flare and halo-CME event observed on 05 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux gradually declined, but remained enhanced.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels during the first two days due to an expected CME passage associated with the X5 flare of 06 April. The CME is expected to reach Earth around midday tomorrow. Quiet to active levels are expected on the final day. There will be a chance for a proton flare from Region 9415 during the period.
III. Event Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 25%25%25%
Proton60%25%25%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 Apr 180
  Predicted    08 Apr-10 Apr  175/175/170
  90 Day Mean        07 Apr 167
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 06 Apr  011/012
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 07 Apr  025/025
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr  025/030-025/030-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Apr to 10 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm 30%30%15%
Major-severe storm 10%10%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm 35%35%20%
Major-severe storm 15%15%10%

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