Viewing archive of Sunday, 1 April 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Apr 01 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 091 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Apr 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. A Class M5 event began at 01/1055 UT. It has been associated with energetic post-flare type loops at the east limb near SE20. Coronal mass ejections have been numerous over the southeast limb, with the most dynamic occurring in temporal association with the Class M5 flare. The CME appeared to clear the LASCO field of view in half the time typical CME's require and appeared to extend from far south of the equator to very far north. Active Region 9393 (N15 W57) has changed little. It produced an impulsive Class M4 X-ray event beginning at 01/1943 UT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain moderate to high. Region 9393 (N15 W57) remains a probable source of Class M and Class X Flares. Other regions with high flare potential among the dozen or so spotted active regions now visible include Region 9408 (S10 W18), 9397 (S10 W35), and 9401 (N20 W40).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 31-2100Z to 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field declined to quiet levels by 01/0900 UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a small chance of a minor storm. An energetic event in Region 9393 is likely to produce a prompt solar proton event.
III. Event Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
Class M80%80%80%
Class X35%35%35%
Proton30%30%30%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       01 Apr 258
  Predicted   02 Apr-04 Apr  235/225/205
  90 Day Mean        01 Apr 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 31 Mar  115/155
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 01 Apr  027/040
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 02 Apr-04 Apr  020/035-012/020-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Apr to 04 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active28%28%28%
Minor storm18%18%18%
Major-severe storm17%12%08%
B. High Latitudes
Active28%28%28%
Minor storm18%18%18%
Major-severe storm12%10%08%

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