Viewing archive of Saturday, 31 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 090 Issued at 2200Z on 31 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate with the only
significant activity a Class M event in Region 9393 (N17 W43) at
31/1100 UT. Active Region 9393 remains as threatening as before.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to remain
moderate to high with continued expectation of another major flare
in Region 9393.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at severe storm levels. A shock
passed the ACE spacecraft at 31/0023 UT and subsequently reached
Earth's magnetic field at 31/0051. The storm developed after that
time and reached maximum intensity after 31/0900 UT. It has
continued into the later hours of the UT days. Dynamic auroral
displays were reported across the United States with especially
dynamic displays reported in Arizona, west Texas and California.
The solar proton event that began at 29/1000 UT was declared over at
01/0600 UT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic storm in
progress is expected to continue into tomorrow before declining to
less disturbed levels
III. Event Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Proton | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 Mar 246 Predicted 01 Apr-03 Apr 240/230/220 90 Day Mean 31 Mar 164
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Mar 008/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 31 Mar 140/150 Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Apr-03 Apr 065/070-030/035-020/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Apr to 03 Apr
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 35% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 27% | 27% | 27% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 12% |
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