Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 28 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 087 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9393 (N13E00) once again produced the most activity with four M-class events during the period. The first was an M1/Sf at 28/0158Z, the second was an M1/Sn at 28/0947Z, the third was an M4/Sf at 28/1240Z and the fourth was an M1/1f at 28/1909Z. Regions 9403 (S13E36) and 9397 (S09E19) produced upper C-class level events. Region 9393 continued growing and currently covers an area of over 2200 millionths in white light. The region is also maintaining a very complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Four new regions were numbered today, Region 9405 (S13W20), Region 9406 (N25E67), 9407 (N11E64), and 9408 (S08E38).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 9393 has the best potential to produce a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to major storm. Minor to major storm conditions were observed from 28/0900Z to 28/1500Z. An earth-directed full halo CME was seen in LASCO/SOHO imagery. The halo occurred at approximately 28/1300Z and was associated with the M4/Sf event in Region 9393.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active conditions on the first day. Conditions are expected to increase during the middle of the period reaching minor to major storm levels due to a CME passage. Conditions are expected to decrease towards the end of the period to unsettled to active levels. There is the possiblilty for a proton event if Region 9393 produces a major flare event.
III. Event Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       28 Mar 274
  Predicted   29 Mar-31 Mar  270/265/255
  90 Day Mean        28 Mar 162
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 27 Mar  016/018
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 28 Mar  024/030
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar  014/015-030/030-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Mar to 31 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%40%
Minor storm10%40%30%
Major-severe storm01%15%10%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%30%
Minor storm15%45%40%
Major-severe storm05%25%20%

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