Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 086 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Region 9401 (N22E30) produced an impulsive M2/1N event at 27/1630Z. This event had an associated Type II radio sweep with a speed of 500 km/s. Region 9393 (N17E11) grew significantly in area overnight and maintains a complex beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration; however, the region has only produced C-class X-ray events during the period. Several other C-class events occurred from Regions 9390 (N14W22), and 9402 (N14W11). New Region 9404 (S06E66) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 9393 has the best potential to produce a major flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to active. Two different shocks were observed on the ACE spacecraft. The first shock occurred at 27/0108Z with an associated sudden impulse of 27 nT on the Boulder magnetometer at 27/0145Z. This activity was believed to be associated with the CME back on 24 March. The second shock occurred at 27/1718Z with an associated sudden impulse of 10 nT observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 27/1745Z. The second shock was believed to be associated with the halo CME on 25 March. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchonous orbit was enhanced during the period, but stayed below event threshold with an observed maximum of approximately 6 pfu.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled to minor storm conditions with isolated major storm conditions possible during the first day of the period. This possible increase in activity is due to the faint full halo CME seen in LASCO/SOHO imagery on 25 March at approximately 1700Z. The geomagnetic field is expected to return to predominately quiet to unsettled conditions the rest of the period with isolated active conditions possible.
III. Event Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton15%15%15%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 Mar 273
  Predicted    28 Mar-30 Mar  235/240/240
  90 Day Mean        27 Mar 161
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 26 Mar  002/006
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 27 Mar  015/015
  Predicted     Afr/Ap 28 Mar-30 Mar  020/025-015/015-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Mar to 30 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%25%
Minor storm 30%20%10%
Major-severe storm 10%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm 40%25%15%
Major-severe storm 20%10%05%

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