Viewing archive of Monday, 26 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 26 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 085 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Two M-class events occurred during the period. Region 9401 (N22E43) produced an M2/1N event at 26/0239Z and Region 9393 (N18E27) produced an M2/1F event at 26/1326Z. Several other C-class events occurred. Significant growth was observed in Region 9393 and the region now has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Growth was also observed in Regions 9390 (N15W08), 9396 (S06W32), and 9401. These numerous regions above have been producing the bulk of activity during the period. New region 9403 (S13E62) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be moderate with the increasing chance of an X-class event occurring. Continued M-class events are expected from any one of several different active regions now on the sun. Region 9393 displays the best potential for producing an X-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with the possibility of isolated active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
Class M75%75%75%
Class X20%20%20%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       26 Mar 264
  Predicted   27 Mar-29 Mar  225/230/235
  90 Day Mean        26 Mar 160
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 25 Mar  005/008
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 26 Mar  008/008
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 27 Mar-29 Mar  008/008-008/008-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Mar to 29 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%25%20%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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