Viewing archive of Friday, 23 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 23 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several small, isolated,
C-class events occurred during the period. The largest was an
optically uncorrelated C5 flare at 22/2300 UTC. One new region was
numbered: 9393 (N20E65). Region 9393 is a large, magnetically
complex spot group and should be capable of producing C and M-class
flares as it continues to rotate onto the disk.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active conditions.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods on the first day of the period.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 180 Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 180/180/180 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 009/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 021/021 Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 015/015-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar to 26 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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