Viewing archive of Thursday, 22 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 081 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

Solar activity was moderate. Three optically uncorrelated M1 flares occurred during the period, at 22/0515, 0821, and 1319 UTC respectively. The M1 flare at 0821 UTC had an associated Type II radio sweep. Active Region 9373 (S05W92) had mostly rotated over the western limb by the end of the period. No new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm conditions. The ACE spacecraft recorded a shock at the L1 point at 22/1250 UTC. This event initiated a 12 nT sudden impulse as recorded by the Boulder station. Minor storming was reported at mid-latitudes during the period of 22/1500-1800 UTC. Activity then returned to unsettled conditions for the remainder of the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Effects from a high speed coronal stream may be expected during the forecast period.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
Class M60%60%60%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 Mar 183
  Predicted   23 Mar-25 Mar  180/180/180
  90 Day Mean        22 Mar 158
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 21 Mar  007/019
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 22 Mar  015/015
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 23 Mar-25 Mar  015/015-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Mar to 25 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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