Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 20 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9373 (S07W71)
produced two M-class events during the period. The first was a
M1/0f at 20/0218 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep and a
partial halo CME. The second from this region was an M1/1f at
20/1507 UTC. Region 9384 (N14W74) produced a M1/0f at 20/0333 UTC.
Region 9390 (N14E73) produced a M1/0f at 20/1424 UTC. Three new
regions were numbered today as Region 9388 (N14W49), 9389 (S12E75),
and 9390 (N14E73).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm conditions.
A fairly long period of southward turning IMF Bz was observed by the
ACE spacecraft. This activity is likely the result of the CME which
occurred late on 15 March.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active as a result of the recent CME
occurrences.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| Class M | 60% | 50% | 40% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 20 Mar 153 Predicted 21 Mar-23 Mar 155/150/140 90 Day Mean 20 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar 019/022 Estimated Afr/Ap 20 Mar 050/065 Predicted Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar 015/025-025/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 50% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 60% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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