Viewing archive of Tuesday, 20 March 2001

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 079 Issued at 2200Z on 20 Mar 2001

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

Solar activity has been moderate. Region 9373 (S07W71) produced two M-class events during the period. The first was a M1/0f at 20/0218 UTC with an associated Type II radio sweep and a partial halo CME. The second from this region was an M1/1f at 20/1507 UTC. Region 9384 (N14W74) produced a M1/0f at 20/0333 UTC. Region 9390 (N14E73) produced a M1/0f at 20/1424 UTC. Three new regions were numbered today as Region 9388 (N14W49), 9389 (S12E75), and 9390 (N14E73).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from active to severe storm conditions. A fairly long period of southward turning IMF Bz was observed by the ACE spacecraft. This activity is likely the result of the CME which occurred late on 15 March.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active as a result of the recent CME occurrences.
III. Event Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
Class M60%50%40%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 Mar 153
  Predicted   21 Mar-23 Mar  155/150/140
  90 Day Mean        20 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
  Observed Afr/Ap 19 Mar  019/022
  Estimated     Afr/Ap 20 Mar  050/065
  Predicted    Afr/Ap 21 Mar-23 Mar  015/025-025/025-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 Mar to 23 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%50%25%
Minor storm05%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%60%30%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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