Viewing archive of Monday, 19 March 2001
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2001 Mar 19 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 078 Issued at 2200Z on 19 Mar 2001IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 9373 (S07W58)
produced a C3/1f at 19/1807 UTC. This region continues to be the
most active on the solar disk. New Region 9387 (N09E59) was
numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm conditions.
An interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft around 19/1020
UTC. This activity is likely associated with the CME which occurred
late on 15 March. A brief magnetopause crossing was observed on
GOES-8 (W075) at 19/1807 UTC.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| Class M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 19 Mar 147 Predicted 20 Mar-22 Mar 140/140/140 90 Day Mean 19 Mar 159
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 18 Mar 005/007 Estimated Afr/Ap 19 Mar 015/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 20 Mar-22 Mar 010/010-008/005-008/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 Mar to 22 Mar
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
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